Russian economy: Experts predict Russia’s GDP to fall ‘by 20%’ – Putin braces for ’embarrassment’ | World | News

Economist Anders slund, former Senior Member of the Atlantic Council and currently chair of the International Advisory Council at the Center for Social and Economic Research, spoke to IpadNews.co.uk about the financial impact of the war on Ukraine.

It came a day after the Kremlin announced it would reduce troops operating around Kyiv and Chernihiv, following negotiations in Istanbul.

Experts expect Russian troops to be withdrawn from northern Ukraine as well, and concentrated in the Donbas.

From then on, Ukraine will be able to “drive out” Russia once and for all, before a deal is reached, slund believes.

He said: “Russia will be beaten – it’s already happened on the pitch. It would be a great shame for Putin.”

Anders Slund worked as a senior adviser to Russia’s reform government under President Boris Yeltsin from 1991 to 1994.

He later became an economic adviser to President Leonid Kuchma of Ukraine and, in 2016, was appointed to the supervisory board of Ukrainian bank Kredyt Dnipro until 2020.

Economists

suggest that Putin “has absolutely nothing” to win from this war because he “did everything wrong”.

Mr Slund, whose last book is entitled “Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy”, attributes the error to Russian government corruption.

He stated: “Putin lost the war because of his authoritarian kleptocracy – everything in his government is corrupt.

“The soldiers are not being provided with sufficient supplies because of the monopoly on food rations – and some of them have expired since 2015!”

In addition, economists say that, because of the agreement for military supplies, the Russian military used the wrong equipment.

He

said: “They used cheap Chinese tires because someone was kicked back from the tire manufacturing company.

“Putin also wants to decide everything from above, so he can’t take advantage of the intelligence services.

“If you do everything wrong, you lose!”

Asked about the sanctions imposed by the West, slund said: “Russia’s economy will be hit hard, but it will take time.

“My expectation is that GDP is likely to fall by about 20 percent. Others saw a 10-15 percent decline in the economy.

“The decline will hit Russia’s population within two to three months.”

And when asked to comment further on the financial catastrophe that awaits the Russian people, he replied: “It is a great disaster for them to have Putin as President … That is the consequence of his regime.”

The economist went on to say that the sanctions would remain in place until Russia paid compensation to Ukraine.

In strict financial terms, apart from a humanitarian catastrophe, the damage Russia has caused to Ukraine is estimated at around $200 billion (£152 billion), according to experts.

Mr slund said: “Ukraine’s GDP has fallen by about 35 percent.

“Others say that the Ukrainian economy has fallen by $550 billion (£419 billion), but I think that’s an exaggeration.”

Although the cost of lost lives cannot be compensated for, experts expect financial sanctions against Russia to be tightened.

He said: “The US is now working with the EU to impose tougher sanctions on oil and gas, and the next step may be sanctions on shipping.

“The general attitude of the West is, ‘To stop Putin, the Russian economy has to be brought down’.”

Mr slund added: “I would be very surprised if Putin’s authority persisted after that.

“He has committed too many crimes against humanity.

“And against his own people as well as the Ukrainian people.”